Yesterday, Rajasthan Congress leader Sachin Pilot came to Delhi. Rumor has it that he also brought his 25 loyalist MLAs. While the mainstream media will write about how Pilot will join BJP and Congress govt will fall, I give you an alternative view: 5 reasons why Sachin Pilot will not join BJP
It is natural that people will compare this with exodus of Jyotiraditya Scindia to BJP that also brought down Madhya Pradesh government. However, the similarities end here. It is more likely that pilot is bargaining with his own party, specially in view of the notice against him by State Police, apparently at behest of Ashok Gehlot. His interest is currently best served in Congress.
Why Sachin Pilot will not join BJP
There are multiple reasons why Sachin Pilot is unlikely to join BJP. I will give you five major reasons here.
Sachin Pilot has real power in Rajsthan
Unlike Scindia, who was practically powerless in MP, Pilot has substantial power in Rajasthan Congress. He himself is Deputy CM. Apart from that, he is also head of Congress organisation in Rajasthan. This puts him in a powerful position. In MP, Kamalnath was CM as well as PCC Chief. This left nothing for Scindia.
No family history with BJP
While Scindia’s father, grandmother and aunts had a history of being in BJP, Pilot does not have that benefit. Such links are used to get better position within new party. Further, his wife- Sara Abdullah Pilot- is sister of Omar Abdullah, former CM of J&K and National Conference leader. It will negatively impact his decision to join BJP.
The seat difference in Rajasthan
While Congress outscored BJP in MP by a slim margin, in Rajasthan the margin was comprehensive. Against BJP’s 72 seats, Congress has 107 seats in the 200 member assembly. It also has support of various allies and commands support of 120 MLAs in the state. 25 MLAs are not going to make up the difference.
The 25 cannot vote for BJP due to anti-defection law. If all 25 resign, the strength of assembly becomes 175 and 88 MLAs are needed to prove majority. Congress still will have 82 MLAs and support of some more. BJP will still be at 72 and with allies 76. So, Sachin Pilot does not have wherewithal to unseat the Congress govt as of now.
BJP offers no further benefit to Pilot
Sachin pilot is already party Chief in state and also Deputy CM. BJP cannot promote him to CM. It is easier to do in small states of North East, where BJP had no leaders of its own, but unlikely in front of Vasunhara Raje and other heavyweight leaders. So Pilot gets no benefit from being in BJP, unless he wants to enter politics at Delhi.
BJP already has too many leaders
BJP already has too many leaders in Rajsthan and it is difficult to manage their expectations. Inclusion of Pilot will lead to giving tickets to all of his loyalists. Similar experience in Karnataka and MP has not been pleasant. Shivraj Singh has expressed the disaffection with Scindia group already and the cabinet is imbalanced in favor of Gwalion region. It is unlikely that BJP will take risk of upsetting its own leaders in Rajasthan, where it is unlikely to come in power even after that.
The mainstream media thrives on sensationalism. It would be better if it put all these facts in front of people and show them true picture.
My assessment is that Sachin Pilot will not join BJP in curent situation. What he wants is more influence over the party in Rajasthan. In wake of leadership change in Gujarat, he may want to protect his position as PCC chief. He may also want to send a message to Gehlot that he has options and can destabilise him. Finally, it is likely that he wants more of his MLAs included in cabinet and withdrawal of cases against himself. We will keep watching the future events with deep interest.
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